Early Summer? Probably Not – PAGASA

February 19, 2016

MANILA, Philippines – The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) yesterday said it seems that early summer is unlikely to occur this year as cold weather persists until the end of the month.

PAGASA weather forecaster Gener Quitlong said they still do not see the start of the dry or summer season this month due to the presence of the cold northeast monsoon.

“Sa ngayon, ipinapakita ng mga (forecast) models na may amihan (northeast monsoon) pa rin tayo na mararamdaman hanggang sa susunod na linggo,” he said.

“Dahil dito malaki ang posibilidad na hindi pa kami makakapag-deklara ng summer ngayong buwan dahil kahit mawala ito next week ay kailangan pa rin namin ito obserbahan for a week para makita kung babalik ba ito o hindi na,” he added.

The northeast monsoon is a mass of cold air from China and Siberia that normally blows into the country from mid-October to early March.

It is usually associated with the Christmas season.

PAGASA declares the start of dry season after observing that the northeast monsoon is completely gone.

Quitlong said the termination of the northeast monsoon might happen next month, signaling the start of summer.

“If this happens, then we can say na naging normal ang termination ng northeast monsoon ngayong taon,” he noted.

The state weather bureau earlier said it expects an early termination of the northeast monsoon this year or “before March” because of the prevailing El Niño episode.

Likewise, due to the strong El Niño event, PAGASA said the public should expect a hotter-than-usual summer as the climate phenomenon is characterized by below-average rainfall.

Climate models showed that the ongoing El Niño event will likely end by July.

Last year, PAGASA declared the termination of the northeast monsoon season on April 1.

Meanwhile, Quitlong said the northeast monsoon is forecasted to bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies with passing light rains over Northern Luzon beginning tomorrow.

On Sunday, he said the seasonal wind from the northeast is expected to slightly intensify, reaching other parts of Luzon and Eastern Visayas.

He said the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with possible isolated rains due to localized thunderstorms.

Quitlong said the country will continue to be spared from tropical cyclones within the next three days.

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